UAP AnalysisIndependent · the declassified record

Correlations — an exploratory view

1944–2025

Two hypotheses in UAP discourse hold that reporting tracks cultural priming (alien-film releases) and nuclear activity. Reporting frequency in this corpus is shown below against major film releases and nuclear milestones. Temporal or spatial coincidence does not establish causation; this corpus is a curated government release, not a complete sighting record.

☢ 1945 — Trinity test · Hiroshima & Nagasaki☢ 1949 — First Soviet atomic test (RDS-1)☢ 1952 — Ivy Mike — first thermonuclear · UK first test☢ 1954 — Castle Bravo☢ 1957 — First Soviet ICBM☢ 1960 — France first nuclear test☢ 1961 — Tsar Bomba☢ 1962 — Cuban Missile Crisis☢ 1963 — Partial Test Ban Treaty☢ 1964 — China first nuclear test☢ 1968 — Non-Proliferation Treaty☢ 1974 — India first test (Smiling Buddha)☢ 1986 — Chernobyl disaster☢ 1991 — START I · end of USSR☢ 1998 — India & Pakistan nuclear tests☢ 2006 — North Korea first test☢ 2011 — Fukushima disaster1944: 1 incident1945: 1 incident1946: 1 incident1947: 35 incidents1948: 24 incidents1949: 19 incidents1950: 5 incidents1952: 8 incidents1954: 10 incidents1956: 2 incidents1957: 7 incidents1958: 4 incidents1959: 1 incident1963: 1 incident1964: 1 incident1965: 1 incident1966: 2 incidents1969: 5 incidents1972: 7 incidents1973: 4 incidents1976: 2 incidents1977: 1 incident1985: 1 incident1986: 1 incident1990: 1 incident1994: 2 incidents2001: 1 incident2004: 1 incident2016: 1 incident2020: 18 incidents2022: 5 incidents2023: 13 incidents2024: 6 incidents2025: 7 incidents🎬 1951 — The Day the Earth Stood Still🎬 1953 — The War of the Worlds🎬 1956 — Earth vs. the Flying Saucers🎬 1968 — 2001: A Space Odyssey🎬 1977 — Close Encounters of the Third Kind🎬 1979 — Alien🎬 1982 — E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial🎬 1996 — Independence Day🎬 1997 — Men in Black / Contact🎬 2002 — Signs🎬 2009 — District 9🎬 2016 — Arrival🎬 2022 — Nope19501960197019801990200020102020
incidents / year nuclear milestone alien film releasehover any marker for its label
Nuclear-site proximity
10%
within 100 mi
27%
within 250 mi

Of the 173 geolocated incidents, this share falls near one of 20 major nuclear sites. Note the strong confound: both military activity and nuclear infrastructure cluster in the same regions, so proximity may reflect where sensors are, not what attracts objects.

Reference events on the chart
Nuclear milestones
  • 1945 · Trinity test · Hiroshima & Nagasaki
  • 1949 · First Soviet atomic test (RDS-1)
  • 1952 · Ivy Mike — first thermonuclear · UK first test
  • 1954 · Castle Bravo
  • 1957 · First Soviet ICBM
  • 1960 · France first nuclear test
  • 1961 · Tsar Bomba
  • 1962 · Cuban Missile Crisis
  • 1963 · Partial Test Ban Treaty
  • 1964 · China first nuclear test
  • 1968 · Non-Proliferation Treaty
  • 1974 · India first test (Smiling Buddha)
  • 1986 · Chernobyl disaster
  • 1991 · START I · end of USSR
  • 1998 · India & Pakistan nuclear tests
  • 2006 · North Korea first test
  • 2011 · Fukushima disaster
Alien / UFO films
  • 1951 · The Day the Earth Stood Still
  • 1953 · The War of the Worlds
  • 1956 · Earth vs. the Flying Saucers
  • 1968 · 2001: A Space Odyssey
  • 1977 · Close Encounters of the Third Kind
  • 1979 · Alien
  • 1982 · E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
  • 1996 · Independence Day
  • 1997 · Men in Black / Contact
  • 2002 · Signs
  • 2009 · District 9
  • 2016 · Arrival
  • 2022 · Nope

Method: incident years come from this corpus; film and nuclear dates are well-known public facts curated for context (see lib/context-data.ts). No statistical correlation is asserted. Sampling caveats are on the methodology page.